A prolonged blockage of the Strait of Hormuz for the next six to 12 months will mean an unavoidable recession, the billionaire investor said.

A "job seeker recession" is taking hold as hiring slows, leaving many Americans struggling to find work without the safety net of past downturns.

Recessions are not predictable with precision. But they are priceable, and at 40% to 50% probability, the risk deserves portfolio-level attention. The investors best positioned for whatever happens next are those who have sized the risk clearly rather than either ignoring it or reacting to it with conviction they don't have.

With the Vicious Cycle Index (VCI), no imagination is required. Moody's Analytics ( MCO +2.88%) chief economist Mark Zandi and his team created the indicator. And it has signaled 100% of U.S. recessions over the last 80 years -- without a single false alarm.

People are preparing themselves for the fact that we are already in a recession now or that there is a high likelihood we will soon be in one,” said Hady Farag, a partner and associate director at Boston Consulting Group.

Top economist Mark Zandi said he created a recession indicator based around the Sahm Rule, which flashed a positive signal for a downturn in January.

Hence, when selecting recession-resistant healthcare stocks, focus on names with wide economic moats and sticky revenue. Among medical device stocks, Becton, Dickinson (NYSE: BDX) is a strong example. During both booms and busts, hospitals rely on the company's medical supplies, lab equipment, and diagnostic products.

Talk of a recession in Australia has picked up in recent weeks. Rising fuel prices, a sharp fall in consumer confidence, and signs of softer spending have all added to concerns the economy may be losing momentum.

REITs with strong balance sheets and business interests in defensive industries can be attractive recession investments.