The yield curve spread that most accurately forecasts recessions is that between the 10-year Treasury bond yield and the 3-month Treasury bill rate. Fed economists and policymakers are also ...

The U.S. Treasury yield curve is currently inverted, with yields on short-term bonds higher than yields on longer-term bonds. Some expect this to unwind with short-term bond yields falling faster than ...

Many are concerned that a deeply inverted yield curve signals a recession. When we look at the current yield curve, we see an opportunity to add exposure to fixed income. The most direct implication ...

After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year ...

Recession talk is back, and the smartest response is to watch the data and quietly fortify your finances before headlines ...

When it comes to the U.S. economy, an inverted yield curve is like the monster under the bed: It’s always lurking, but it doesn’t always come out. Recently it has, however, which could be an early ...

You know that once-mythical soft landing thing that Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee referenced in his recent interview with Marketplace? It’s the thing where inflation is tamed but ...

NEW YORK, NEW YORK - JANUARY 09: Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange during afternoon trading on January 09, 2023 in New York City. The stock market closed with mixed results ...

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The yield curve is a graphical representation that plots the interest rates of bonds with equal credit quality but varying maturity dates. A normal yield curve slopes upward, indicating higher ...

Here’s a short presentation by Aswath Damodaran on the recent inverted yield curve and whether there is a signal in the noise. He writes: On December 4, 2018, the yield on a 5-year US treasury dropped ...